Gamble With Your Friends Keno Odds & Pick Calculator

What are the best Keno numbers?

There are no better individual numbers.

The game draws 10 winning numbers from 48. Picking 1, 7, 23 or 8, 29, 44 does not change the odds. What changes the round is how many numbers you select.

Keno Pick Calculator

Choose how many numbers to mark. The specific numbers do not matter.

Number of picks

Probability of 0 hits

37.94%

Probability of at least 1 hit

62.06%

Hits needed to make a profit

1

Maximum payout

9.29×

Gross EV

100%

One-round payout variance

1.0607

How Keno works

One draw. No better square on the board.

• 48 numbers
• 10 diamonds drawn
• Select up to 10

Each round is a hypergeometric draw: 10 winning numbers from 48, against the count you marked.

Pick count by goal

There is no single best pick count. The strongest count depends on the counter you are optimizing.

Pick count changes the hit distribution and the payout spread, not the baseline EV.

Hit is not profit

Ten picks hit at least once about 92.77% of the time. One hit pays about 0.34× and two hits pay about 0.68×. Both still lose the round. The ticket needs 3 hits before it is ahead.

More numbers increase the chance of hitting something, not necessarily the chance of making money.

1–10 pick comparison

More numbers raise the chance of touching a diamond. They do not raise the chance of finishing ahead.

Ten picks is the jackpot route

Ten picks hits at least once about 92.77% of the time, yet only about 34.20% of rounds finish in profit. The full hit pays 173.37×. High hit rate is not a high profit rate.

Four picks is the strongest packaged chance to finish one round ahead

One hit on 4 picks pays about 1.16×, so the chance the round ends in profit is 62.06%. That is the highest profit-hit rate from 1 through 10. The expected value is still the same. The table just leans toward small, frequent wins.

Does picking fewer numbers reduce risk?

Not necessarily. A one-number ticket is very swingy: most rounds return zero, and a hit pays 4.8×. In the current packaged table, the lowest one-round payout variance sits at 6 picks.

Where the different counts fit

10 picks is the high-tail route, not a best strategy; the full hit pays 173.37×. 6 picks is the lower-variance route. 1 pick is the Marked to Win route. Baseline EV stays level with every count.

Why every pick count has the same baseline EV

No. Every packaged pick count is normalized to the same gross expected value.

1. The game computes the real hypergeometric probabilities for that pick count.
2. A raw reward of 2^hits is applied, and 0 hits stays at 0.
3. The whole distribution is scaled so the expected raw reward is 1.
4. The final payout is that scale times EstimatedValue.

Gross EV = EstimatedValue. At the packaged value of 1, every pick count from 1 through 10 has a 100% baseline gross EV.

P(hits) = C(10, hits) × C(38, picks − hits) / C(48, picks). Raw reward is 2^hits, and 0 hits is forced to 0. Scale = 1 / sum(P(hits) × raw reward). Final payout = scale × raw reward × EstimatedValue.

The payout table is rebuilt for each pick count, and that rebuild is exactly what pulls the baseline back to the same value. What changes is the distribution: how often you profit, how hard you can miss, and how large the tail is.

This is not a permanent 100% RTP. It is a packaged baseline at EstimatedValue = 1. If EstimatedValue later becomes 0.9, every payout in the table falls by 10%.

Keno Goal Planner

Name the outcome you want. The planner returns the pick count and the exact packaged numbers behind it.

My goal

Target Payout Calculator

Set a pick count and a gross payout target. The calculator returns the hits you still need and the exact chance of reaching it.

Hits required

6

Chance of reaching the target

0.25%

Maximum payout at this pick count: 173.37×

Payouts are discrete per pick count, so a target resolves to a hit threshold.

Spot On

Bet a lot of money on Keno on Floor 2.

Floor 2 Keno. Cumulative wager of current quota × 50%. Reward: 8 Tickets. Configured Floor 2 pool share is about 11.11%.

Spot On checks cumulative wager. A win, a single bet size, the final balance, and the payout do not move this counter.

The bets can add up. One enormous wager is not required.

Required total Keno wager

$500,000

5 qualifying bets at that stake

Spot On route selector

The pick count changes the bankroll profile, not the wager counter.

Golden Chip can register a large wager without the normal cash deduction, which helps a cumulative wager threshold when that wager still counts. Taser raises the table Max Bet, so a quota × 50% target can take fewer rounds.

Golden Chip→Taser→

Marked to Win

Profit a lot of money on Keno on Floor 4.

Floor 4 Keno. Cumulative positive casino profit of about current quota × 30%. The stored multiplier is 0.30000001. Reward: 12 Tickets. Configured Floor 4 pool share is about 6.25%.

This is not one round that profits 30% of quota. It is a running total of positive Keno profit.

Losses do not undo challenge progress

On a $10,000,000 quota the target is about $3,000,000 of positive Keno profit. A +$1,000,000 round, a −$2,000,000 round, and a +$2,000,000 round still add $3,000,000 to the counter. The loss still hits the bankroll.

Required positive Keno profit

$3,000,000

Fastest expected challenge progress

If the only goal is expected positive-profit progress per dollar wagered, 1 pick is the strongest packaged route: about 0.7917 of progress per $1 wagered. Other pick counts are lower.

Why 1 pick leads Marked to Win but not bankroll stability

79.17% of 1-pick rounds return zero. The challenge adds settled profit and never subtracts a loss, so the counter rewards rare but larger wins. That is exactly the distribution 1 pick produces. It is the fastest expected route, not the calm one.

Expected Marked-to-Win progress per $1 wagered

• 10.7917
• 20.6232
• 30.4877
• 40.3794
• 50.3363
• 60.3397
• 70.3263
• 80.3121
• 90.3362
• 100.3457

Buffed challenge calculator

A profit buff scales only the portion above 1×. It changes settlement, not the draw.

How is my factor calculated?→

Hit probability on 1 pick

20.83%

Gross return on a 1-pick hit

4.80×

Profit on a 1-pick hit

3.80×

Expected Marked-to-Win progress per $1

0.7917

A 1-pick hit is 4.8× before buffs, which is 3.8× profit. At this factor the gross return is 4.80× and the challenge profit is 3.80× of the wager. It is not 4.8× times the factor.

Pick 1 still leads expected challenge progress at this factor, about 0.7917 per $1 wagered.

Buffs change challenge progress, not draw odds. The 20.83% hit chance on 1 pick does not move.

Items by challenge

Items change how a challenge counts. They do not change the draw.

These are direct mechanical synergies, not a recommended build.

Items guide→

I got Spot On but can’t find Keno

Version-sensitiveReported / version-sensitive

Players have reported receiving Spot On on a floor layout with no Keno table. A challenge appearing does not prove the current layout spawned Keno. The data shows Keno is in the Floor 2 pool. It does not show that every Floor 2 layout includes it.

The challenge can be active even when the current casino layout did not spawn Keno.

Spot On challengeMarked to Win challengeVersion notes→

Where Keno appears

First available: Floor 2.

Keno is in the Floor 2 and Floor 4 pools, which matches Spot On on Floor 2 and Marked to Win on Floor 4.

• Floor 2 · configured pool share about 11.11%
• Floor 4 · configured pool share about 6.25%

Floor pools→

What does not matter

The verified Keno model uses only 48 numbers, 10 drawn diamonds, and your pick count.

• Specific number
• Board position
• Corner square
• Diagonal line
• Birthday numbers
• The previous draw

None of these changes the base probability in the current model.

Version and RNG boundary

Save and seed guide→

Evidence table

Every headline claim on this page, and how solid it is.

Exact means the packaged model closes the number. Verified means the rule is confirmed from the game data. Not established means the site will not state it as a rule yet.

Keno questions